Adjusted Goal difference

[mrmalaki]

The other day in response to someone else's comment I went away and did some maths, and calculated each players GD. For example if we have Colo and Tayls at CB and are winning 2-0 then Tayls gets injured and is replaced by Williamson and we end up losing 3-2 then their GD's would be -1(colo), 2(Tayls) and -3 (Wills).

Frequent (played over 1500 mins in the league)
Harper +44
Colocinni +34
Nolan +33
Smith +30
Enrique +27
Jonas +27
S. Taylor +25
Simpson +24
Guthrie +24
Carroll +24
R. Taylor +15

Moderate (played over 500 mins but less than 1500)
Williamson +11
Lovenkrands +10
Harewood +10
Ameobi +9
Ranger +9
Van Aanholt +9
Butt +8
Khizanishvilli +2

Rare players (under 500mins)
Kadar +6
Routledge +5
Pancrate +5
Barton +4
Best +4
Geremi +2
Hall +1
Krul +1
Tozer +1
Duff 0
Xisco 0
Donaldson 0
Lua Lua 0
Vuckic 0

But even that is unfair on the players that have played hardly any matches... so I also looked at average goal difference per 90mins and from that the best player to have on the pitch at any time is Ben Tozer... with the team scoring once in is 3 minutes on the pitch giving him a score of +30 goals per game...

With him aside the team that brings us the best goal difference per game is
Harper (1.38)

Simpson (0.97)
Williamson (1.83)
Colocinni (1.37)
Kadar (1.77) (or Enrique 1.12)

Pancrate (1.37)
Smith (1.14)
Nolan (1.05)
Jonas (1.19)

Ranger (1.30)
Best (1.13)

Looking at this to improve the side:
get a new right back & left back that is giving some thing more to the team,
also despite being a top goal scorer having Nolan on the pitch isn't as good for the whole team as you may think
The second striker could also improve, but we should definately play Ranger more!

[Legzy]

I like it. It's not a complete picture, but it's definately worth looking at! Nice work.

[Legzy]

Did you work out Shola's contribution per match lol

[mrmalaki]

I did and now that you've mentioned it and I've looked back I realised a mistake, Shola actually has a team goals per 90mins of 1.17, butting him just above Best!

[Legzy]

Oh my word!
We can't have that. I'm going to have to ask you to weight it by strength of opposition or something

[mrmalaki]

Well that's all changed thanks to a great result today!

Harper in the sticks now has +1.48

pick 4 from the following 6 in defence (depending on fitness):

Kadar (2.74), Williamson (2.29), Colocinni (1.51), S. Taylor (1.19), Simpson (1.12) & Enrique (1.10)

Pancrate (2.14), Jonas (1.33), Guthrie (1.21) & Nolan (1.21) make up the midfield

and in attack
Ranger (1.30)
Carroll or Lovenkrands (1.29)